Last Friday's jobs report delivered a stronger-than-expected print, but the economic data doesn't stop there. This week, an equally important piece of economic data will be released, the March Consumer Price Index.
The U.S. economy added 178k jobs in March, nearly three times the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 59,000 and a sharp rebound from February's loss of 133,000 jobs. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Healthcare saw the most job gains (76k) while the federal government (-18k) and financial services (-15k) both lost jobs.
Economists are forecasting a 1% increase in CPI for March, the largest single-month increase since 2022. The Iran war pushed gas prices up more than $1 per gallon, and that pain at the pump will now begin showing up in the data. On the flip side, core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is expected to rise a more modest 0.3% and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, is seen rising 0.4% for a third consecutive month in February. Even though PCE is expected to come in much lower than headline CPI, it may be a tough sell for the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts if CPI stays above 3%.
Sources: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics
This material is for informational purposes only and not intended as investment, tax, or legal advice. Tax-loss harvesting may help reduce taxable gains, but its suitability depends on individual circumstances. All investments carry risk, including loss of principal. Please note, changes in tax laws may occur at any time and could have a substantial impact upon each person’s situation. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Projections or trends discussed are not guarantees. Investors cannot invest directly inindexes. The performance of anyindexis notindicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.