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Wall Street just had its best quarter since 2020 — but the bond market tells a different story.
The S&P 500 rose 15% and the Nasdaq 21% in Q2, powered by AI-linked chip stocks. Micron alone was up 242% for the quarter. But underneath the equity euphoria, rates have been sending a more cautious signal. Back in January, markets...
Read MoreIs leverage quietly becoming one of the biggest risks facing today’s market?
A recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted that investor margin debt reached a record $1.4 trillion in May, up 54% from the previous year. At the same time, assets held in leveraged ETFs have nearly doubled since late March, as...
Read MoreMarkets shifting with oil, inflation, rates, and tech all moving at once.
This week was a good reminder of how quickly markets can shift when inflation, oil, rates, and tech all move at once. Earlier in the week, investors were still focused on geopolitical risk and energy markets. Oil volatility and...
Read MoreRecent change in the U.S. Treasury market.
Since late February, yields have risen sharply across the curve, but not evenly. The biggest moves have been in the intermediate range. The 3Y is up ~81 bps and the 2Y up ~80 bps. Meanwhile, the short end (1M) actually fell 6 bps, and...
Read MoreCrude futures declined as investors focused on negotiations between the United States and Iran
Reports of a proposed roadmap toward a longer-term agreement have reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into oil prices. The negotiations also include discussions surrounding safe passage through the Strait...
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds first press conference.
One of the more interesting takeaways from Chair Warsh’s press conference was not just the rate decision itself, but the five task forces the Fed is now setting up behind the scenes. Warsh said these groups will focus on Fed...
Read MoreAI companies are flooding the convertible bond market and it's reshaping how the bond market works.
U.S. companies have issued roughly $54 billion in convertible bonds so far in 2026, up 43% from the same period last year and the highest year-to-date volume since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The driver is clear: AI companies...
Read MoreA major geopolitical breakthrough could bring immediate relief to global markets.
The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to stop the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing planned for Friday. The agreement reportedly includes a 60-day ceasefire period, during which...
Read MoreWhat we're seeing with today's SpaceX IPO
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, raising roughly $75 billion in what became the largest IPO on record. The stock then opened around $150 and quickly surged into the $170s, pushing the company’s valuation above $2 trillion. That...
Read MoreMay CPI came in at 4.2% — the highest in three years. But the details matter more than the headline.
Consumer prices accelerated from 3.8% in April, driven almost entirely by energy. The energy index accounted for over 60% of the month Consumer prices accelerated from 3.8% in April, driven almost entirely by energy. The energy index...
Read MoreThe Fed’s next chapter may be more complicated than expected.
Kevin Warsh’s potential path as Fed chairman is already facing a difficult backdrop: a rebounding labor market, a sensitive bond market, and pressure from the White House. A stronger labor market usually gives the Fed less room to cut...
Read MoreMay's jobs report is no longer just a labor market story. It is starting to matter for rates.
The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, nearly double the consensus estimate of 88,000, marking a third straight month of payroll gains. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings ticked down slightly to...
Read MoreOil near $100 again is becoming more than just an energy story. It is starting to matter for rates.
As U.S.-Iran talks continue to stall, markets are beginning to reprice the risk of a longer period of disruption in the Middle East. Brent crude has climbed back toward $98 a barrel, while WTI has moved into the mid-$90s, rebuilding...
Read MoreMarket volatility is becoming a profit engine for Wall Street.
Big banks are benefiting from continued market turbulence as elevated trading activity helps drive stronger profits across the banking sector. According to The Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently pointed to growing...
Read MoreOil is sending a very different market signal today.
As optimism builds around a possible U.S.-Iran agreement and the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude has slipped below $92 a barrel, while WTI has moved down into the upper-$80s. That is a meaningful change from the...
Read MoreCorporate bond yields are becoming one of the more important stories in fixed income right now.
An index of the most creditworthy U.S. companies reached a yield of about 5.3% this past week. With inflation break-evens near 2.4%, that points to real, inflation-adjusted returns approaching 3% over the next decade. For...
Read MoreToday’s market action is a reminder that investors are still balancing two different forces at once.
On one side, the market continues to reward technology leadership. Semiconductor and memory names pushed higher again, helping lift the Nasdaq and support the S&P 500 as investors stayed focused on earnings momentum, AI demand, and...
Read MoreWill the Fed’s next move be a rate increase?
Markets reacted sharply following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who stated that additional rate hikes remain possible if inflation progress stalls. Despite market expectations leaning toward eventual cuts,...
Read MoreHigher rates around the World
The U.S. 10-year Treasury has been trading around 4.60% to 4.66%, U.K. 10-year gilts are near 5.0%, Germany’s 10-year bund is around 3.14%, and Japan’s 10-year government bond is near 2.40%, one of the highest levels seen in decades...
Read MoreWhy is the 10-year Treasury Climbing?
Higher long-term rates are becoming one of the biggest stories investors need to watch.The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 4.54% today, putting it near its highest level in nearly a year, while the 30-year yield moved above 5%.
Read MoreWholesale Inflation Hits 4-Year High
Wholesale Inflation Just Hit Hard. What It Means for Businesses and Consumers. Producer prices just sent a much louder alarm than most expected. The Producer Price Index rose 1.4% for the month, well above the 0.5% consensus forecast...
Read MoreFebruary CPI: Inflation Holds Steady Above Target
The February 2026 CPI report, released this morning, showed inflation holding above the Federal Reserve's target, with markets sending mixed signals about what comes next.The CPI rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in February, with the...
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What’s Going on in the Treasury Market
US Treasuries have begun to sell off just after posting their biggest monthly gain in a year, with yields up more than 20 basis points since the beginning of March. Conventional wisdom would suggest that US Treasuries would continue to...
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How the Iran Conflict is Impacting Oil Markets
Following strikes on Iran, a major military conflict has erupted in the Middle East that is fundamentally reshaping global energy markets, creating what could be a severe energy crisis.WTI Crude and Brent have surged to 52 week highs...
Read MoreKOSPI at a Crossroads: Valuation vs. Volatility in a New Geopolitical Era
South Korea's KOSPI suffered its worst two-day selloff since 2008, plunging 7.2% on Tuesday and another 12% on Wednesday, marking its steepest single-day drop in history. Circuit breakers were triggered, halting trading for 20 minutes....
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What Drove the US Treasury Rally in February
US Treasuries wrapped up their monthly biggest rally in a year. The benchmark 10-year yield broke below 4% to its lowest level since October, while the 30-year slipped to 4.63%. Several interconnected forces drove this surge in bond...
Read MoreHow Geopolitical Tensions Impact Global Markets
Rising geopolitical tensions recently contributed to increased volatility across global markets, with energy prices climbing and equity indices reacting to shifting risk sentiment. The moves sparked broader discussion among investors...
Read MoreUnderstanding Liquidity Risk in Private Credit
A large private credit manager recently came under scrutiny within the rapidly growing private credit space after announcing changes to redemption mechanics in one of its retail-focused private debt funds and pursuing asset sales to...
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Supreme Court Rules Against President Trump’s IEEPA Tariffs
Last Friday, the Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 to impose sweeping tariffs, invalidating the "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs and other...
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Basel III Could See New Mortgage Capital Requirements
The Federal Reserve is moving closer to releasing its revised Basel III Endgame proposal, and the mortgage market could look very different as a result. Basel III is a global framework, developed after the 2008 financial crisis,...
Read MoreU.S. Inflation Eases in January: Key Takeaways from the Latest CPI Data
This week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, showing that U.S. consumer prices rose 2.4% year-over-year, a deceleration from December and softer than many forecasts had...
Read MoreJanuary 2026 Jobs Report: Resilience Defies Expectations
This week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January 2026 jobs report, showing that employers added approximately 130,000 jobs, a notable acceleration from recent months and stronger than many forecasts had anticipated....
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Understanding Market-Linked CDs: What Investors Should Know
Market-linked certificates of deposit represent a hybrid investment that combines the principal protection of traditional CDs with returns tied to market index performance. As these products are not as well-known as stocks or bonds,...
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Credit Spreads Near Historical Lows Despite Supply Surge
Credit spreads—the extra yield investors demand for holding corporate bonds over U.S. Treasuries—have tightened to around 75 basis points, levels not seen since 1998. This metric serves as a key indicator of market confidence, with...
Read MoreU.S. Treasury Maintains Auction Sizes in February 2026 Refunding Announcement
This week, the U.S. Treasury released its quarterly refunding announcement, outlining plans to auction approximately $125 billion in Treasuries over the February–April period. Importantly, the Treasury kept auction sizes for...
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Fed Hits Pause: Recapping Last Week’s FOMC Meeting
Last week, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5-3.75% in a 10-2 vote, breaking a three-meeting cutting streak. Governor’s Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller dissented, arguing for a 25 basis point rate cut....
Read MoreKevin Warsh’s Fed Chair Nomination Signals a Shift in Monetary Leadership
Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh was nominated by President Donald Trump to be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, a move that could shape the direction of U.S. monetary policy once his Senate confirmation is complete and...
Read MoreConsumer Confidence Hits a Decade Low
U.S. consumer confidence slumped sharply in January, falling to 84.5 on The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the lowest reading since May 2014 and a 9.7-point drop from December’s revised 94.2.Despite resilient GDP growth...
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Japan's Bond Market Turmoil: A Warning for Global Fiscal Policy
Japanese government bonds saw a major price shift last week, with long-term yields reaching historic levels as the 40-year JGB climbed nearly 30 basis points. The market adjustment extended beyond Japan's borders, influencing U.S....
Read MoreTariffs as Leverage: How Geopolitical Tensions Are Reshaping Market Risk in 2026
As markets move through early 2026, investors are weighing the implications of a major geopolitical and trade development that has introduced fresh uncertainty to global economic conditions. President Donald Trump has threatened to...
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President Donald Trump Calls for 10% Credit Card Interest Rate Cap
President Donald Trump recently called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%. With the current average rate around 20%, this proposal could significantly impact both consumers and the financial industry.The potential...
Read MoreA $200 Billion Mandate: The GSE Move to Lower Mortgage Rates
As markets move into early 2026, investors are closely watching a notable policy action aimed at the housing market. President Donald Trump has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed...
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The Administration Takes Aim at Wall Street Landlords
In a major move to address the nation’s housing crisis, President Trump has announced he would move to ban large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, pledging to ask Congress to codify the restriction into law....
Read MorePennsylvania Bankers Trust and Wealth Management Conference
What an incredible experience at the Pennsylvania Trust and Wealth Management Conference! A huge thank you to the organizers and attendees for welcoming Freedom Capital earlier this week for and creating such an engaging environment...
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Government Shutdown 2025
As the U.S. government enters a shutdown, the ripple effects extend far beyond Washington. At Freedom Capital, we see this moment as both a challenge and a reminder of our responsibility to help clients navigate uncertainty. When...
Read MoreFlorida Bankers Association Trust and Wealth Management Conference
Thank you to the Florida Bankers Association for hosting an outstanding Trust & Wealth Management Conference! Our team at Freedom Capital enjoyed connecting with so many dedicated professionals and industry leaders such as Carlos...
Read MorePennsylvania Municipal Authorities Association Annual Conference
Earlier this month, Freedom Capital Group was honored to attend and exhibit at the Pennsylvania Municipal Authorities Association Annual Conference and Trade Show in Bethlehem, PA. We are grateful for the opportunity to take part in...
Read MoreFed Monitor Dashboard
As we enter the next phase of the expansion, we try to quantify metrics the Federal Reserve uses to gauge the health of the economy. Here is Cetera Investment Management’s latest Fed-O-Meter used to determine if the Fed is being more...
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